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As we have seen in previous sections, late Tokugawa Japan was being affected by a number of internal changes. Generally speaking, the effects of these changes were twofold: firstly, they undermined the Tokugawa rule of Japan; and secondly, they prepared Japan for her modernization after the forced opening by the West in the 1850s.

Economic changes - changes included the deterioration of subsistence farming, the rise of commercial agriculture and rural industries, as well as the prosperity of urban commercial economy.
These changes in the first place undermined the Tokugawa rule of Japan. It meant a decay of a gradually outdated feudal economy on which laid the basis of the Tokugawa bakufu. For instance, wealth had been measured in terms of rice yield, but wealth could by the early 19th century be derived from other sources such as mining, trade and fishery. These new sources of wealth benefitted mostly the tozama daimyo, traditional enemies of the shogunate, and the merchants. In other words, the strength of Tokugawa rule was being weakened.

On the other hand, these changes prepared the groundwork for the modernization of Japan. Japanese, especially the merchants and rural entrepreneurs, were getting used to a cash economy, an early stage of industrialization and a modest development of commerce. All these were indeed the seeds of capitalism. Unwittingly, Japan's feudal economy was giving way to an infant stage of capitalism. When the Meiji modernization began, Japanese found themselves easier to accept the more drastic economic changes.

Financial aspect - from the bakufu to the daimyo and their samurai, all these ruling classes were confronted with financial difficulties. The fundamental cause was "a cash expenditure rising faster than a rice revenue."
Again, the effects were twofold. Firstly, it weakened the Tokugawa rule because the relative strength between the shogunate and the tozama daimyo shifted in the latter's favour. Reforms were much more successfully carried out by Satsuma and Choshu than the bakufu and the fudai. As a result, in the 1860s the strength of the shogunate was barely stronger than a single tozama, as we can see from the Choshu Expedition 1864. When Choshu and Satsuma allied in 1866, it already spelt the death sentence of the shogunate. Furthermore, the samurai class as a whole was in financial straits. Many of them agitated for changes. Such a development, of course, weakened the main support of the feudal structure in Japan.

Secondly, much groundwork for Japan's modernization was paved. In the era of reforms in the early 19th century, it spelt the rise of reforming daimyo who raised young men of modest samurai rank to form a new administrative elite. The debate over economic reforms, the rivalry between high-rank samurai and "men of ability"-- all provided experience of politics and office to a widening circle from which was to be drawn the future rulers of Japan.

Social changes - the chief sign of social changes was the weakening of the social hierarchy which was meant to be rigid and immobile. Yet economic changes had social effects:
the rise of merchant class, the poverty of peasants, and the demoralization of samurai.
Poverty of the peasants drove many to revolts in the early 19th century. These revolts could not overthrow the bakufu, but they were indications of a failing system. Meanwhile, the more prosperous merchants and rural entrepreneurs were dissatisfied with their social status (lowest in the hierarchy) which by no means reflected their economic power. Therefore they were dissatisfied with the status quo. Small wonder, the Osaka merchants was one of the main forces that joined in the anti-Tokugawa movement. Demoralization of many samurai was reflected in their giving up of status and intermarried with the wealthy classes. Others became ronins, agitating for changes and disturbing social order wherever they went. In sum, the basis of Tokugawa rule was being weakened by these subversive elements.

On the other hand, such social changes were beneficial to Japan's later modernization. In general terms, Japanese were aware of the concept of social mobility and of social status commensurate with economic power. These are characteristics of a capitalist society, not of a feudal order. More specifically, the merchant classes had experience and wealth which proved helpful in the Meiji reforms. In addition, hardship of the landless peasants drove many into towns and cities to become labourers for industrialization.

Intellectual ferment - two changes were apparent by the early 19th century: the rising prestige and status of Japanese emperors, and the growing influence of Dutch scholars.
Both changes undermined the Tokugawa rule. The supreme position of the shogun was being questioned. The more daring ones would view the shogun as an usurper who showed no respect to the emperor. On the contrary, the "tenno" was being regarded as the symbol of unity of the Japanese people at a time of national crisis. This symbol was made use of by all groups in Japan in their service. The bakufu sought imperial sanction in the 1850s to those unequal treaties with the West. The tozama daiinyo championed the "Sonno" movement in an anti-bakufu struggle. At the same time, the Dutch scholars questioned the seclusion policy and advocated the opening of Japan in an effort to carry out "Eastern ethics, Western science." The ability of the Barbarian Suppressing General (Shogun) to protect the country from aggression was directly questioned.

These changes had positive effects as well. The unique position of the "tenno" was exploited to nurse a sentiment of unity among all Japanese at a time of national crisis. The Meiji leaders very successfully made use of this sentiment to carry out their reforms for all reforms were implemented in the name of the emperor. Opposition to reforms, therefore, meant a betrayal of the tenno. In the meantime, the Meiji leaders were able to arouse Japanese patriotism and cultivate an emperor-centred nationalism. This facilitated the transformation of Japan from a feudal country to a modernized nation.
The influence of the Dutch scholars imparted a sense of realism in Japanese minds. Seeing the impossibility of "joi", the more pragmatic leaders accepted the opinion of opening Japan to the West and of learning from the West. Thus, in an article of the Charter Oath 1868, the Meiji leaders advocated that "Knowledge shall be sought all over the world and thus shall be strengthened the foundation of the imperial polity."

Political changes - the most important political change was the shifting balance of power between the bakufu and the daimyo, especially the tozama.
In the past, the economic and military strength of the bakufu was much superior to that of the daimyo. Yet in the early 19th century, successful economic and military reforms of several tozama daimyo (Satcho-Hito) gave them greater power to challenge the authority of the shogunate. Alongside with this came the forced opening of Japan by the West and the rising prestige of the emperor. When confronted with this threefold challenge, the bakufu lacked capable leaders to overcome the crisis. On the contrary, it exposed its weaknesses by committing several mistakes. It sought advice from the daimyo when Perry came; it also sought imperial sanction to the unequal treaties with the West; it failed to head the "joi" movement; and it failed to counter the combined strength of Satsuma and Choshu in 1866. The outcome for such lack of confidence, decision-making ability and military power was the downfall of the Tokugawa shogunate by 1868.
The end of Tokugawa rule of Japan was a blessing in disguise. At the very least, it cleared the way for a new era -- the Meiji era of transformation.